Key View

• Client loan growth in the Czech Republic will slow from 5.8% in July 2023 to 4.8% y-o-y by end-2023.

• Tight monetary policy and a poor macroeconomic backdrop are weighing on loan demand, but we expect rate cuts and an improving private consumption outlook to support stronger loan growth of 5.2% at end-2024.

• Deposit

Key View

• While Albania was granted candidate status in 2014 and has recently opened formal accession negotiations with the EU, we believe that accession is unlikely to happen over coming decade.
• Aside from domestic difficulties to meet the necessary reform requirements, Albania’s candidacy will likely be stalled by its ties to North

Key View 

• Broad FDA approval of Ojjaara validates GSK’s USD1.9bn bet on Sierra Oncology and makes it the first and only drug approved in the US to treat myelofibrosis patients with anaemia.
• Ojjaara’s strongest rival will be Incyte’s blockbuster Jakafi; however, broad anaemia indication will provide GSK with a competitive edge.
• The

Key View

• Following the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) decision to continue its hiking cycle on September 15 by raising the key rate from 12.00% to 13.00%, we retain our view that the Bank will lift the rate by a further 100 basis points before the end of 2023 to 14.00%.
• The CBR’s main concern has now shifted from providing support for

Key View

• We expect the recent downtrend in UK house prices to continue over the coming quarters.
• Purchasing power is being eroded by high interest rates, the rising cost of living, and the erosion of pandemic excess savings, all of which are reducing the affordability of houses.
• However, the downside for house prices will be limited by a

Key View

• We have revised up our Romania new vehicle sales forecast higher following better than anticipated y-t-d figures, which point to the effectiveness of the scrappage scheme which has led to new cars being more price competitive to older vehicles cars.
• Electric vehicle sales have also performed better than expected, prompting an

Key View: Western Europe boasts a number of key clothing and footwear markets for fashion brands, where a combination of high disposable incomes, large urban populations and the wide proliferation of fashion options drives high levels of spending. Over 2024, the region (22 markets) is forecast to spend USD470bn on clothing and footwear items

Key View

• We have revised down our GDP forecast to 2.6% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024 (previous forecasts: 5.6% and 3.6%), as private consumption and fixed investment are feeling the impact of high interest rates.
• We expect domestic private consumption growth to slow down as consumers face increasing financial constraints.
• Net exports are

Key View

• The United Kingdom will remain one of the most attractive European markets for EV charging infrastructure investment over the coming decade, a view underpinned by our upbeat expectations for EV sales over the period.
• The expansion of EV charging infrastructure in the UK has accelerated in recent years, with demonstrable appetites

Key View

• The third estimate for the eurozone’s Q223 real GDP growth came in at 0.1% q-o-q, down from a prior 0.3% estimate. In turn, we have lowered our 2023 real GDP growth forecast for the region from 0.7% to 0.6%, while leaving our 2024 forecast unchanged at 0.9% (Consensus: 0.6% and 0.9%).
• We continue to expect broad stagnation across