- We have revised down our growth forecasts for El Salvador from 2.2% in 2023 and 2.4% in 2024 to 1.8% and 1.6%, respectively.
- Our downward revisions come largely on the back of somewhat weak H123 export and remittance inflow readings, suggesting that the US slowdown is having a deeper-than-anticipated impact on the local economy.
Key View: We hold a negative outlook for consumer spending in Argentina for the rest of 2023, as economic weakness, together with surging inflation and elevated interest rates weigh heavily on household budgets forcing consumers to prioritise essentials. Furthermore, a more pronounced slowdown in Q223 and Q323 due to a poor agricultural harvest
- We maintain our forecast that Panamanian real GDP growth will slow from 10.8% in 2023 to 5.0% this year, but flag that downside risks to this projection are rising at the margin.
- Domestic demand should continue to drive growth this year, supported by loose fiscal policy ahead of next year’s elections and easing inflation.
- We continue to expect broad social stability in Ecuador prior to the general election scheduled for August 20.
- The main issues that we are watching in this election are violent crime, the economy, and oil drilling on indigenous land.
- It is our expectation that Luisa Gonzalez – the candidate of former President Rafael Correa’s
- Telefónica, KKR and Entel have agreed to establish a wholesale operator in Peru which will encompass Telefónica’s and Entel’s fibre assets.
- Under the terms of the deal, KKR will be the majority owner of the new company with a 56% stake. The fibreco aims to reach 5.2mn homes by 2026, up from the 2mn homes the combined networks pass
Grupo México: Future Profitability Underpinned By Solid Copper Project Pipeline, Low Operating Costs
- A solid project pipeline and low operating costs will sustain expansion of Grupo México's mining operations in the coming years.
- Strikes and blockades at major assets have disrupted output in recent quarters and will remain a significant risk for the company.
- Long-term growth will be supported by the acceleration of the green
- We now expect 2.3% real GDP growth in Brazil in 2023, up from 1.7% previously, putting us slightly above consensus of 2.1%.
- Upside risks to activity in Q223 that we flagged previously have played out, as solid private consumption and robust exports continue to fuel growth.
- That said, we expect growth will moderate later in 2023
- Loan growth in Chile will continue to slow through Q323, as a combination of high interest rates and weak economic activity continue to suppress new lending.
- However, we see a rebound beginning in early Q423, with growth rising to 5.7% by end-2023 and 10.2% by end-2024, as rates begin to come down, the economy recovers and
- We forecast that the Colombian peso will appreciate from COP4,810.2/USD at end-2022 to COP4,350/USD by end-2023, averaging COP4,500/USD. Our year-end forecast is in line with Bloomberg consensus.
- While the COP will weaken in H223 due to higher risk aversion among investors, lower oil prices and a narrower interest rate